2020年8月12日

MondayMay13th:

ACTION:SoldtoCloseBBRY($16。

03)June22nd/July14PutCalendarat。

60fora。

05gain

Dan?

ClosingthistradehadlittletodowithmythoughtstowardsBBRYssuccesswiththeirnewphones,butmoretodowiththefactthatthehighconcentrationoflongholders,andthehighshortinterestcouldcausethestocktobecomeinvoguesotospeakwiththosehellbentoncausingshortsqueezesinotherstockswithsimilarcharacteristics(seeTSLA,SCTY,GMCR,FSLRtonameafew)

Read?

here

TuesdayMay14th:

Action:SoldtocloseFXAJune99Putat$1。

35fora$0。

90gain

Enis?

Iclosedthistradeforatriple,andIwaslikelyearly?

TheAustraliandollarhasbeenonaone-waytrainlowerforthepast2weeks?

Infact,itsthemostoversoldithasbeenvs。

theU。

S。

dollarinthepast5years?

Iviewthismoveasthestartofalonger-termselloffintheAustraliandollar?

Aconfluenceoftrends,includingweakercommodityprices,weakeningChinesegrowth,andamuchlowerinterestratedifferentialvs。

therestoftheworld,havecoincided,leadingtoaggressivesellingofthecountryscurrency?

Immoresurprisedthatittookthislongforsellerstoemerge,asIhavebeenexpectingweaknessintheAustraliandollarforoverayearnow?

Butnowthatthesellersarehere,Idontthinkitsaonemonthmove?

Isoldtheputsbecauseofhowone-waythesellinghasbecome,butIwouldwelcomeabounceinFXAtogetinvolvedontheshortsideagain。

Read?

here

TRADE:FDX($100。

22)BoughttheJune100/92。

50PutSpreadfor2。

25

Enis?

ThemarketsbroadrallyinMayhastakenthelaggardshigheraswell?

Fedexisonesuchlaggard,whoreportedadismalearningsnumberinMarch,andsawarapid15%sellofffollowingthatreport,onlytobouncebackonthemarketsstrengthratherthananyindividualnewsrelatedtoitsbusiness?

Infact,headwindspersistforFDXgoingforward,asinternationalgrowthcontinuestodisappoint,andthestrengthofthedollarinthepastmonthisjustonemoreearningsdifficultythatFDXwillhavetocontendwithinitsJuneearningsreport?

Inshort,businesstrendsarenotinFDXsfavoratthemoment,soIusedtherecentbouncetoplayforareturnofthesellersaroundtheimportant$100psychologicallevel?

Also,Juneoptionscapturethenextearningsevent,whichisanotherpotentialcatalystforthistradetoplayout。

Readhere

WednesdayMay15th:

Action?

SoldtoclosetheJCP($19。

03)June16/20CallSpreadat$2。

33fora$0。

99gain

Enis?

IthinktheJCPstoryhasturnedafteryearsinthedoldrums?

ThatsnottosaythatIexpectamiraculousturnaroundinthebusiness?

ButIdothinktherearesignificantshiftsunderwaythatmarkthelowinAprilaslikelyalong-termlow?

Mostimportantly,thecompanyhasimproveditscashflowpositionthroughitsbankfinancingdeal(announcedrightaftertheSorosequitystakeof8%),andhasreturnedtoitsdiscountingstrategyofyearspasttowinbackitsold,value-focusedcustomers?

Again,thesearenotrevolutionarydevelopmentsforthecompany,butexpectationsaresolow,andinvestorsaresousedtobadnewsasthedefaultinthisname,thatanyhintofgoodnewsisenoughtogivebuyerscontroloverthesellers?

Thetechnicalpictureisoneofbuyersfinallybecomingmoreaggressivethansellers,andifthesalespicturedoesstarttoimprove(ofwhichtherearehintsinMay),thenthestockislikelybuildingmomentumtomakeanicerunhigheroverthenext6months?

Isoldthiscallspreadaheadofearningssinceithadanicegainoverthepast2weeks,butIamabuyerbackaroundthe$17。

50levelontherightsetup。

Read?

here

Action?

Sold?

theCSCO($21。

23)May18th21Straddleat。

92fora。

28loss。

Dan?

WhenI?

initiated?

thistrademythoughtwasthatCSCOslaggardstatuscouldcauseoneof2things,eitherunder-performanceinabroadmarketselloff,ifandwhenitevercame,orbenefitfromtherotationoflateintooldtechwithstrongbalancesheethighdividendyield(seeAAPL,IBM,INTCMSFTinthelastmonth)?

Owningthestraddle?

essentially?

gavemetheopportunitytoownamoveineitherdirectioninfrontofan?

earnings?

eventthatshouldhavehelpedkeeptheimpliedvolbidintheoptions?

IclosedthedayofearningsasIdidnothavehighconvictionforanoutsizedmoveonewayortheotherandtheplaywasreallygettingwhatIfeltwasacheaplookinthe2weekspriortotheprint。

Readhere

TRADE:SoldtheVIX(12。

87)June14/12PutSpreadtoBuytheJune16/20CallSpread,EvenMoney

Enis?

AstheSP500indexhurdleshigher,Idontwanttoplaythegameoftryingtocallatop?

Emotionsarerunninghigh,andexcitedpsychologycanleadtoextendedmovesontheupsidejustasitcanleadtopanicsonthedownside?

However,Iamoftheopinionthatwearelikelytoseeanastyboutofsellingatsomepointinthenextmonthgivenhowstretchedthisupsidemovehasbecome?

SoIwantedtogetlongexposuretotheVIXwithoutpayingpremiumforit?

MyplanistoexitthistradeonthefirstmoveintothehighteensintheJuneVIXfutures?

Thatway,IdonthavetoguesswhethertheselloffintheSPXindexoccursfrom1650,1675,or1700?

Ijustneedtobethereforthefirstboutofdownsidevolatility。

Readhere

TRADE:AMZN($265。

80)BoughttheJune22nd270/255/240PutFlyfor$3。

60

Enis?

ThemoodinAMZNseemstohavefinallychangedafteritslastearningsreport?

Sellersseemtohavebecomemoreaggressiveinthisinternetgiantoverthelast3months?

Thestockhasstalledevenasthebroadermarkethasbeenonatear,signalingtomethatgrowthinvestorsinthetecharenamightbelosingsomepatiencewithAMZNontheearningsfront?

RegardlessofthereasonsforAMZNsstall,Ilikethetechnicalsetup,wherethe245to275rangeseemslikelytohold,particularlygiventhesharpreactionfromthe275levelafterearnings。

Readhere

ThursdayMay16th:

TRADE:FXC($97。

87)BoughttheJune97PutFor$0。

60

Enis?

LongtheU。

S。

dollarismyfavoritemacrothemeforthenext6months?

IdecidedtoinitiateatradeshorttheCanadiandollarvs。

theU。

S。

dollarbecauseoftheimportantlong-termtechnicalsetup,aswellastherenewedweaknessincommodityprices,whichshouldhurtboththeAustraliandollarandtheCanadiandollar(buttheAustraliandollarissooversoldthatitsnotagoodentrypoint)?

Inaddition,theimpliedvolatilityontheCanadiandollarisquitelowifthisisinfactapotentiallong-terminflectionpointforthecurrencycross?

IwillcontinuetolookforotheropportunitiesinlongdollartradesonpullbacksacrosstheFXuniverse。

Read?

here

FridayMay17th:

TRADE:WMT($77。

62)BoughttheSept80callfor$1。

51

Enis?

WMTreportedaweakearningsnumberthisweek,andpromptlysoldofffrom80to77。

50?

However,onavaluationperspective,WMTisoneofthefewreasonablyvaluedlargecapconsumerstaplescompaniesaround,andthatsimplefactshouldsupportthestockdespitetheweakbusinessbackdrop?

Moreimportantlyformytradethough,thestocksettledinneartheimportant$77。

50supportlevel,andoptionsinSeptemberareverycheap,soIlikedtherisk/rewardofalongcallentryonthename,particularlysinceIhaveabout4monthsoftimevalueneedingonlya5%movehighertobreak-evenonmytrade。

Read?

here

TRADE:TSLA($91。

74)BoughtJune/Sept100CallSpreadfor$5。

00

Dan?

Thestockisinalloutmania-modeandtobefrankwhileIthinkitisun-investableatcurrentlevels,Ithinkthebullstoryisfarfromover?

Thestockhasdoubledinamonth,thecompanyjustraised$1billionandthefounderboughtsharesworth$100millionontheoffering。

wow?

Storieslikethisdontjustendintheblinkofaneye,especiallyforacompanywithaproductthatcouldbe?

truly?

revolutionary?

Theideawiththecallcalendaristhattherecentofferingshouldprovideandoverhangonthestockinthenearterm,andbysellingtheshortdatedcallatover10volpointsovertheSeptthatIambuying,thetradeoffersmemanywaystowinpriortoJuneexpirationwithagoodshothavebeingabletocloseJuneandsellahigherstrikecallinSepttocreateacallspreadforaplayintotheirQ2earningsinlateJuly。

Read?

here

EXPIREDWORTHLESS:

Note?

Thereisanaturalsurvivorshipbiasinourexpiringtrades?

Wetakeallofourwinnersoffpriortoexpirysincewedon’ttakedeliveryofstock,whichleavesonlylosingtradestoreportonexpiry?

Youcanseeallofourtradesreported?

ontheRecentTradespage。

TRADE:WFM($85。

40)BoughtMay83/78PutSpreadfor1。

30

Readinitialposthere

TRADE:BoughttheCMI($111。

40)May110/100PutSpreadfor$2。

80

Action:SoldHalfofthetheCMI($106。

00)May110Putat$6。

40foradouble,leaveotherhalfon

Readinitialposthere

TRADE:YHOO($23。

30)BoughtMay23/21PutSpreadfor。

55

Readinitialposthere

TRADE:NEM($39。

27)BoughttheMay40/42CallSpreadfor$0。

63

Action:BoughttheNEM($33。

90)May42Callfor$0。

10

NewPosition?

LongtheNEMMay40Callfor$0。

73

Readinitialposthere

TRADE:XHB($29。

33)SoldtheMay28/30CallSpreadat$1。

17,Expiredforlossof$0。

83

Readinitialposthere

TRADE:JNJ($82。

54)BoughttheMay82。

5Putfor1。

35

TradeAdjustment?

JNJ($85)BoughtMay85/82。

5PutSpreadfor。

75

NewPosition:LongJNJ($85)May85Putfor2。

10

Readinitialposthere

TRADE?

BuytheMON($104。

50)May105/97。

5/90PutFlyfor$1。

80

Readinitialposthere

TRADE:XLE($74。

60)BoughttheMay73。

50Putfor$1。

30

Action:BoughttheXLE($77。

37)May77/73。

50PutSpreadfor$0。

80

NewPosition?

LongtheMay77Putfor$2。

10

Readinitialposthere

TRADE:DIS($61。

85)SoldtheMay62。

50/65CallSpreadat。

75

Readinitialposthere

TRADE:BoughttheHD($66。

92)May65/60PutSpreadfor$1。

22