2020年7月5日

Creditmarketsexperiencedliquiditysqueezesin1994,1998,2001and2003,sotoday’senvironmentisnotunique。

Itmaybemoreprotractedthanbefore,butintheendliquiditywillberestored。

Thepriceoffundingmayrise,butitseemshighlylikelythatnormalmoney-marketactivitywillreturnwithinsixmonths,bywhichpointitseemsentirelypossiblethatapariahmayoncemorehavebecomeaparagon。

AnotherinvestmentwelikeisEurovestech(EVT),adevelopmentcapitalfundfocusedonhigh-technologyenterprises。

Thevalueofitsportfolioofinvestmentscouldconsiderablyexceeditscurrentsharepriceof18p。

ItsstarinvestmentisToLuna,theonlinemarketresearchservicesgroup,whichhasgrownrapidlysincefloatingin2005。

Eurovestechhasalreadyrealised£7。

4mcashfromaninvestmentthatcostitjust£2m,anditsremaining50%stakeisvaluedat£36m。

OtherpromisinginvestmentsincludeKSS,whichsells“smart”pricingsystemstoretailersandpetrolstations,includingBPandWal-Mart。

Boughtfor£1m,ithasbeenvaluedbybrokersat£18m。

Magenta,meanwhile,sellsintelligentsoftwaretechnologyandexpectsoperatingprofitsthisyear。

ThesethreealonecouldbeworthmorethanEurovestech’smarketvalueof£57m,leavingsomeofitsmostexcitingstakes–inArkex(oildrillingservices)andMist(potentiallyrevolutionarymusicremasteringtechnology)–infornothing。

Thegrouphasnetcashandasolidbalancesheet。

Helphire(HHR),whichhasbeenalong-timecoreholdingforourportfolios,providesreplacementcarstodriverswhoseownvehicleshavebeendamagedinaccidents。

Thisservicehasbecomemoreacceptedintheinsuranceindustry。

Helphirehasseenrapidgrowthviaorganicgrowthandacquisitions。

Onarelativelyfixedcostbasethisisnowcomingthroughintoprofitsandmarketforecastsareforearningsof20p-23ppershareintheyeartoJune2007,followedby30pthefollowingyear。

Thedividendisseenasrisingto10p,then12p。

Atasharepriceof377p,thisrepresentsaJune2008p/eof12。

5,whichismodestforthegrowthbeingdelivered。

ThestocksSimonShawlikes

Stock,12mthhigh,12mthlow,Now

Paragon,715p,245。

50p,277。

75pEurovestech,22p,17p,17。

8pHelphire,453p,314p,375。

25p

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